Fixture intake
Fixtures, results and match statistics for eight leagues, stored as they arrive and never overwritten.
How the engine works.
A transparent nine-stage path from fixture data to a published probability. The engine runs on a schedule every day; the web app only displays what it recorded.
Data validation
Every feed is checked for gaps and duplicates before a model sees it; missing data lowers a fixture’s quality score.
Elo rating
Team strength from results, adjusted for the opponent, venue and goal margin.
Poisson model
Expected goals for each side from attack and defence strength, giving every scoreline a probability.
Dixon-Coles adjustment
Corrects low scores (0–0, 1–0, 1–1) and gives recent matches more weight.
LightGBM estimate
A machine-learning model trained only on matches before the one it predicts.
Market-weighted blend
Match result and total goals 2.5: our models blended with the margin-free sharp price, weighted to the market.
Calibration check
Probabilities are adjusted so that 70% calls land about 70% of the time; the calibration page shows the result.
Publication threshold
A selection becomes a tip only if its probability, model agreement and best available price all clear the published bar. Some days nothing does.
Does 70% mean 70%?
Seasons the models never trained on. The full tables per market, live and held out, are on the calibration page.
What we do not claim
No outcome is promised, and we do not claim our models beat the market: where bookmaker prices exist, the published probability is weighted to the market. A probability describes a range of possible outcomes, and losing runs happen. The public record shows every tip, where the models were right and where they were wrong, and the calibration page shows how well the percentages hold up.
Numbers over noise.
TipSignal is a product of Vitalos Technologies Ltd (company no. 16696895), built to make football probabilities clearer, more accountable and easier to inspect. Our standard: record before kick-off, show every outcome, explain the model, and keep responsible gambling visible.
Contact: support@tipsignal.net