RESULTS / CALIBRATION
How accurate are the probabilities? ? Of all the times we say 60%, about 60% should happen. ECE is the average gap, in percentage points. Past predictions Match result and total goals 2.5: our models blended with the margin-free sharp price, weighted to the market.
On this page Summary by market Modelled selections, not published tips. These tables score every probability the engine produced for a market, whether or not it became a tip. Published tips, with every win and loss, are on Past predictions , so a short or empty tip record next to full tables here is expected.
ECE by market: lower is closer to what happened Market Live ECE Backtest ECE Backtest fixtures Match result 3.9 pts 0.7 pts 5,832 Total goals 1.5 2.9 pts 0.9 pts 5,832 Total goals 2.5 7.7 pts 1.0 pts 5,832 Total goals 3.5 5.9 pts 1.0 pts 5,832 Both teams to score 4.6 pts 0.5 pts 5,832 Home team to score 5.5 pts 1.0 pts 5,832 Away team to score 3.6 pts 0.4 pts 5,832 Home team goals 1.5 3.2 pts 1.9 pts 5,832 Away team goals 1.5 7.3 pts 1.2 pts 5,832 Double chance — 0.4 pts 5,832 Draw no bet — 1.2 pts 4,328
Live, since launch Match result ECE 3.9 pts Match result · 157 fixtures · ECE 3.9 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 8.0% Too early to judge 6 10–20% 15.7% 16.9% 83 20–30% 25.1% 23.9% 180 30–40% 34.2% 30.8% 65 40–50% 44.7% 54.7% 53 50–60% 55.1% 42.4% 33 60–70% 64.1% 70.3% 37 70–80% 74.6% Too early to judge 13 80–90% 81.8% Too early to judge 1
Away team goals 1.5 ECE 7.3 pts Away team goals 1.5 · 157 fixtures · ECE 7.3 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 18.1% Too early to judge 4 20–30% 24.2% 41.9% 31 30–40% 33.5% 39.4% 71 40–50% 44.3% 41.2% 51 50–60% 55.7% 58.8% 51 60–70% 66.5% 60.6% 71 70–80% 75.8% 58.1% 31 80–90% 81.9% Too early to judge 4
Away team to score ECE 3.6 pts Away team to score · 157 fixtures · ECE 3.6 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 8.0% Too early to judge 10 10–20% 16.6% 16.7% 30 20–30% 26.0% 29.4% 68 30–40% 34.0% 32.4% 34 40–50% 43.7% Too early to judge 15 50–60% 56.3% Too early to judge 15 60–70% 66.0% 67.6% 34 70–80% 74.0% 70.6% 68 80–90% 83.4% 83.3% 30 90% and above 92.0% Too early to judge 10
Both teams to score ECE 4.6 pts Both teams to score · 157 fixtures · ECE 4.6 pts We said On average It happened Selections 20–30% 29.3% Too early to judge 11 30–40% 36.7% 36.7% 30 40–50% 44.4% 49.1% 116 50–60% 55.6% 50.9% 116 60–70% 63.3% 63.3% 30 70–80% 70.7% Too early to judge 11
Home team goals 1.5 ECE 3.2 pts Home team goals 1.5 · 157 fixtures · ECE 3.2 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 18.0% Too early to judge 6 20–30% 25.9% Too early to judge 10 30–40% 34.1% 37.7% 61 40–50% 44.2% 41.3% 80 50–60% 55.8% 58.8% 80 60–70% 65.9% 62.3% 61 70–80% 74.1% Too early to judge 10 80–90% 82.0% Too early to judge 6
Home team to score ECE 5.5 pts Home team to score · 157 fixtures · ECE 5.5 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 6.6% Too early to judge 19 10–20% 15.0% 21.8% 55 20–30% 24.7% 28.6% 49 30–40% 34.2% Too early to judge 27 40–50% 43.6% Too early to judge 7 50–60% 56.4% Too early to judge 7 60–70% 65.8% Too early to judge 27 70–80% 75.3% 71.4% 49 80–90% 85.0% 78.2% 55 90% and above 93.4% Too early to judge 19
Total goals 1.5 ECE 2.9 pts Total goals 1.5 · 157 fixtures · ECE 2.9 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 8.2% Too early to judge 2 10–20% 16.7% 17.3% 75 20–30% 25.3% 29.0% 69 30–40% 30.0% Too early to judge 11 60–70% 70.0% Too early to judge 11 70–80% 74.7% 71.0% 69 80–90% 83.3% 82.7% 75 90% and above 91.8% Too early to judge 2
Total goals 2.5 ECE 7.7 pts Total goals 2.5 · 157 fixtures · ECE 7.7 pts We said On average It happened Selections 20–30% 24.4% Too early to judge 3 30–40% 37.8% 31.8% 44 40–50% 44.7% 52.7% 110 50–60% 55.3% 47.3% 110 60–70% 62.2% 68.2% 44 70–80% 75.6% Too early to judge 3
Total goals 3.5 ECE 5.9 pts Total goals 3.5 · 157 fixtures · ECE 5.9 pts We said On average It happened Selections 20–30% 25.9% 33.8% 71 30–40% 36.2% 40.0% 65 40–50% 44.1% Too early to judge 21 50–60% 55.9% Too early to judge 21 60–70% 63.8% 60.0% 65 70–80% 74.1% 66.2% 71
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Backtest, held-out seasons 2024/25 and 2025/26 Match result ECE 0.7 pts Match result · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 0.7 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 7.1% 5.2% 743 10–20% 15.7% 16.5% 2,541 20–30% 25.7% 25.8% 6,238 30–40% 34.0% 33.7% 3,178 40–50% 44.6% 45.4% 1,869 50–60% 54.7% 53.1% 1,332 60–70% 64.6% 63.2% 806 70–80% 74.5% 75.5% 519 80–90% 84.3% 88.4% 249 90% and above 91.4% Too early to judge 21
Total goals 1.5 ECE 0.9 pts Total goals 1.5 · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 0.9 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 6.5% 5.0% 60 10–20% 16.7% 17.4% 2,112 20–30% 25.4% 24.3% 2,193 30–40% 30.8% 30.2% 1,467 60–70% 69.2% 69.8% 1,467 70–80% 74.6% 75.7% 2,193 80–90% 83.3% 82.6% 2,112 90% and above 93.5% 95.0% 60
Total goals 2.5 ECE 1.0 pts Total goals 2.5 · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 1.0 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 16.7% Too early to judge 27 20–30% 26.9% 28.9% 357 30–40% 36.1% 37.4% 1,543 40–50% 45.3% 44.5% 3,864 50–60% 54.6% 55.4% 3,946 60–70% 63.9% 62.6% 1,543 70–80% 73.1% 71.1% 357 80–90% 83.3% Too early to judge 27
Total goals 3.5 ECE 1.0 pts Total goals 3.5 · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 1.0 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 19.6% 21.6% 403 20–30% 24.6% 23.8% 2,860 30–40% 35.6% 34.8% 1,841 40–50% 45.2% 42.9% 728 50–60% 54.8% 57.1% 728 60–70% 64.4% 65.2% 1,841 70–80% 75.4% 76.2% 2,860 80–90% 80.4% 78.4% 403
Both teams to score ECE 0.5 pts Both teams to score · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 0.5 pts We said On average It happened Selections 20–30% 28.5% Too early to judge 18 30–40% 36.3% 38.8% 618 40–50% 46.2% 46.4% 5,196 50–60% 53.8% 53.6% 5,196 60–70% 63.7% 61.2% 618 70–80% 71.5% Too early to judge 18
Home team to score ECE 1.0 pts Home team to score · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 1.0 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 7.2% 6.6% 837 10–20% 15.3% 15.8% 1,434 20–30% 24.7% 23.1% 2,005 30–40% 33.7% 34.2% 1,212 40–50% 43.6% 45.9% 344 50–60% 56.4% 54.1% 344 60–70% 66.3% 65.8% 1,212 70–80% 75.3% 76.9% 2,005 80–90% 84.7% 84.2% 1,434 90% and above 92.8% 93.4% 837
Away team to score ECE 0.4 pts Away team to score · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 0.4 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 8.2% 8.3% 278 10–20% 16.8% 16.5% 728 20–30% 25.6% 25.6% 2,070 30–40% 34.9% 34.1% 1,951 40–50% 44.7% 43.8% 769 50–60% 54.8% 55.6% 841 60–70% 65.1% 65.9% 1,951 70–80% 74.4% 74.4% 2,070 80–90% 83.2% 83.5% 728 90% and above 91.8% 91.7% 278
Home team goals 1.5 ECE 1.9 pts Home team goals 1.5 · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 1.9 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 16.8% 15.2% 310 20–30% 25.7% 27.0% 815 30–40% 35.0% 36.6% 2,458 40–50% 45.1% 42.6% 2,249 50–60% 54.9% 57.4% 2,249 60–70% 65.0% 63.4% 2,458 70–80% 74.3% 73.0% 815 80–90% 83.2% 84.8% 310
Away team goals 1.5 ECE 1.2 pts Away team goals 1.5 · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 1.2 pts We said On average It happened Selections 10–20% 16.4% 16.9% 531 20–30% 24.3% 26.0% 1,545 30–40% 32.9% 34.0% 2,296 40–50% 44.7% 43.5% 1,460 50–60% 55.3% 56.5% 1,460 60–70% 67.1% 66.0% 2,296 70–80% 75.7% 74.0% 1,545 80–90% 83.6% 83.1% 531
Double chance ECE 0.4 pts Double chance · 5,832 fixtures · ECE 0.4 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 7.2% 5.6% 764 10–20% 15.7% 16.1% 2,790 20–30% 25.7% 25.7% 6,757 30–40% 34.2% 34.3% 3,984 40–50% 44.9% 46.0% 3,201 50–60% 55.1% 54.0% 3,201 60–70% 65.8% 65.7% 3,984 70–80% 74.3% 74.3% 6,757 80–90% 84.3% 83.9% 2,790 90% and above 92.8% 94.4% 764
Draw no bet ECE 1.2 pts Draw no bet · 4,328 fixtures · ECE 1.2 pts We said On average It happened Selections 0–10% 6.8% 5.6% 390 10–20% 15.2% 14.5% 765 20–30% 25.1% 25.6% 930 30–40% 35.1% 33.1% 1,063 40–50% 44.9% 43.6% 1,172 50–60% 55.0% 56.3% 1,188 60–70% 64.9% 66.9% 1,063 70–80% 74.9% 74.4% 930 80–90% 84.8% 85.5% 765 90% and above 93.2% 94.4% 390
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How to read these tables We said is a probability band; On average is the mean probability we gave in it; It happened is how often those outcomes happened; Selections counts the probabilities in the band.ECE is the gap between what we said and what happened, averaged over the bands and weighted by their selections, in percentage points. Lower is better.A band with fewer than 30 selections shows “Too early to judge” in place of a figure. Backtest figures come from seasons held out from training. They are not live results and are never mixed into the public record.More on the method: How the engine works , Simulated backtest and Model updates .
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