Tips and the engine

We combine several football models with bookmaker prices once their margin is removed, then calibrate the result against past matches. For match result and total goals 2.5, the published probability is weighted to the sharp market price, because in testing our models did not improve on it. The calibration page shows how close our probabilities have been to what happened.

A 0–100 score that ranks today’s published tips. It is not a probability.

The band puts our probability into one of five named ranges: Slight, Moderate, Strong, High and Very high, from lowest to highest. It is a quick way to read the probability, not a separate score or a recommendation. The (?) next to the band on a tip shows the range it covers.

When team sheets are confirmed the engine re-runs. A tip can be withdrawn before kick-off with the reason kept on the record.

Calibrated means our probabilities match how often things really happen. Over many matches, the selections we rate more likely should land more often, in the proportion we said. The calibration page compares what we said with what happened, range by range, so anyone can check it, including where we were wrong.