Predictions and Value Picks

A Prediction is our probability for a selection in a match, recorded before kick-off and settled after full time, like every row on the public record. For match result and total goals 2.5 it is our calibrated probability, weighted to the margin-free sharp market price. Every match in our leagues gets one when a full set of market prices is available.

A Value Pick is a Prediction where a bookmaker's price clears our value bar. They are rarer than Predictions, and some days there are none; when that happens we say so and show what we checked. Until enough of them have settled to judge them, Value Picks are labelled Experimental. In Nigeria the price shown is a UK reference price.

Matches in our leagues get a Prediction: our calibrated probability, weighted to the margin-free sharp market price. A match has none when that market has not priced it in full yet. A Value Pick is rarer: it appears only when a price clears our value bar. Some days nothing does. We say so, and never lower the bar to publish more.

No. TipSignal publishes football analysis: our probabilities for matches and a public record of how every published tip turned out, losses included. Probabilities are estimates and no outcome is certain. We do not tell anyone what to bet, and we take no bets. If you choose to bet, only stake what you can afford to lose, and use Account → Safety if you need a break.